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Early Oscar buzz

By Craig Outhier, Tribune

Woe is he who goes foraging for potential Oscar nominees before
September. Seasonally speaking, Oscar is a late fall, early winter
sort of spud — as far as the main categories go, you won't
find many
winners in recent years that originated in any month other than
those that end with "ber."

Sometimes, there are exceptions. Julia Roberts won for "Erin
Brockovich" a few years back. That was a February release. Another
big winner, "Gladiator," leapt onto the scene in May 2000. Last
year . . . well, that was the exception to the exception. Nothing
remotely Oscarly came out in the first half of last year.

The midyear Oscar primer for 2004 is somewhat more promising, led by
a $400 million-grossing Passion play and a little romance about
losing your head.

BEST ACTOR
No performance, be it by man or woman, child or adult, ogre or
donkey, quite defied my expectations as did Jim Carrey's work
in "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind." As a fidgety,
heartbroken loner who pays to have Kate Winslet zapped from his
memories, Carrey completely retuned his motor, delivering the most
nuanced, inward performance of his career.

For suffering hours of simulated beatings and other apocryphal
tortures, Jim Caviezel may get a push for his title role in Mel
Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ." Mario Van Peebles strutted
and
bullied his way to rave reviews in "Baadasssss!" while Ewan McGregor
discovered a new core of haunted nihilism in "Young Adam."

Potential Oscar contenders: Carrey and Caviezel both have an outside
chance.

BEST ACTRESS
As the spunky, moody misfit who Jim Carrey chases through his own
gray matter in "Eternal Sunshine," Kate Winslet gave her brightest,
most lively performance since "Titanic." It's a safe bet that the
zombie masskilling spectacular "Dawn of the Dead" will go Oscar-
less, but Sarah Polley gave the brainsplattering proceedings a
dramatic urgency with her firstrate performance as a widowed nurse.

Gena Rowlands, directed by son Nick Cassavetes in "The Notebook,"
gave a moving performance as a mentally diminished woman charmed by
the story of her own youth.

Potential Oscar contenders: Somewhat likely Winslet, less likely
Rowlands.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
In a film that inspired so much derision, admiration and
controversy, it was Romanian actress Maia Morgenstern who cut
through the static, playing a grieving mother forced to witness her
son's cruel demise in ``The Passion of the Christ.''
Morgenstern's
boiling, mostly wordless performance humanized what could have been
a purely pornographic spectacle of violence and gore.

Pop moonbeam Mandy Moore flashed unexpected comedic chops as a
Biblethumping holy terror in "Saved!" French stunner Virginie
Ledoyen was tres formidable as a headstrong freedom fighter in the
quasi-farcical wartime thriller "Bon Voyage."

Potential Oscar candidates: Morgenstern, if there is a God.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
With the formidable marketing muscle of Miramax behind him, David
Carradine could knock the competition dead with his performance as
the smooth, sad-eyed villain in "Kill Bill: Vol. 2" — and
don't
think Oscar voters wouldn't love giving it to him.

As conflicted frontiersman Davy Crockett, Billy Bob Thornton shined
in the otherwise lusterless "The Alamo." Eric Bana was a tanned
tower of virtue in Wolfgang Petersen's epic "Troy."

Potential Oscar contenders: Realistically, probably just Carradine.

BEST PICTURE
Lacking a powerful distributor, Mel Gibson pocketed the lion's
share
of the fantastic grosses earned by "The Passion of the Christ" —
and
if he wants the picture to enjoy a strong Oscar publicity push, he
might have to dip into his earnings. Besides which, it's unclear
whether Gibson can shake charges of anti-Semitism and marshal
widespread Oscar support in Hollywood.

Maybe Oscar will take a cue from the Cannes Film Festival and give a
documentary a shot at the main prize. When the smoke has finally
cleared, Morgan Spurlock's "Super Size Me" and Michael
Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" will rank among the most successful
documentaries in history, and Kevin MacDonald's mountainclimbing
drama hybrid "Touching the Void" is certainly in the same caliber.

Michel Gondry's scrumptiously warped "Eternal Sunshine of the
Spotless Mind" earned rave reviews, but is probably too outre for
the Academy's staid taste, and Petersen's "Troy" —
through possessed
of Oscar-caliber scope — tripped while storming the box-office
beachhead.

Potential Oscar contenders: "The Passion of the Christ" should win
some converts.

And in the second half of the film year . . .
A few late-year offerings that could make an Oscar splash:
"Alexander": Beating a rival Leonardo DiCaprio-Baz Luhrman project
to the finish line, Oliver Stone ("Platoon") directs Colin Farrell
as the continent-conquering Macedonian. (opens Nov. 5)

"The Aviator": Leonardo DiCaprio plays Howard Hughes in his most
productive, pre-germaphobic years, when he built an aviation empire
and romanced the likes of Katharine Hepburn (Cate Blanchett), Ava
Gardner (Kate Beckinsale) and Jean Harlow (Gwen Stefani). Martin
Scorsese directs. (November TBA)

"Ladder 49": Trapped in a fire, waiting for his mates to rescue him,
a firefighter (Joaquin Phoenix) reflects on his life and career, a
la "For Love of the Game." (Oct. 8)

"I Heart Huckabees": From his usual comic vantage, director David O.
Russell ("Three Kings") tells the story of a husband-wife team (Jude
Law and Naomi Watts) who help clients solve existential issues.
(October TBA)

"Unchain My Heart: The Ray Charles Story": Like Angela Bassett
playing Tina Turner in 1993's "What's Love Got to Do With It?"
Jamie
Foxx could warrant Oscar consideration portraying the late, great
blues pianist. (Oct. 29)

"An Unfinished Life": Reclaiming his usual Christmas cleanup spot in
the Miramax batting order, director Lasse Hallstrom
("Chocolat," "The Cider House Rules") helms this drama about an
abused wife and mother (Jennifer Lopez) who escapes to Wyoming to
live with her estranged father-in-law (Robert Redford). (Dec. 24)