I am submitting the following letter to the Guardian newspaper, in response to a letter replying to an article in the G2 section on Monday by Andy Beckett, entitled 'Has the left blown its big chance of success?' (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/aug/17/left-politics-capitalism-recession) [I tried submitting it yesterday but it wasn't printed, perhaps due to saying "£1.3 billion" rather than "£1.3 trillion" for the bailout of the banks (a figure courtesy Robert Peston of the BBC) rather than censorship...]

 

 

Socialist Workers Party (SWP) national secretary Martin Smith (Letters, 19 August, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/aug/19/left-financial-crisis-socialism-anticapitalist) argued that the SWP's Chris Harman predicted the economic crisis in July 2007. In fact, Harman's article ('The rate of profit and the world today', International Socialism, issue 115, http://www.isj.org.uk/?id=340) merely argued that economic crises will continue to occur, due to the tendency for the rate of profit to fall, as identified by Karl Marx. Incidentally, Harman neglected to mention key factors contradicting this tendency - advertising and brand loyalty.

The left failed to forsee the scale of the crisis, which has led to a £1.3 trillion bailout of the banks in the UK alone, necessary to avert complete financial meltdown which even George W Bush warned about. Even now, Marxist commentators tail capitalist economists, afraid to make predictions too far adrift of consensus viewpoints.

Gordon Brown recently mentioned his fears that the current crisis will turn into a double dip recession ('Gordon Brown warns G8 of new recession dangers', 6 July, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jul/06/gordon-brown-g8-leaders-recession). However, Socialist Worker has so far ignored this possibility.

In my view, a double dip recession is inevitable, with a massive slump when the quantitative easing (printing money) ends and the next government makes huge public spending cuts and tax rises. If the next government fails to take such measures to try to balance the books, David Cameron could be correct ('Cameron: UK could default on its debt', 19 August, http://www.guardian..co.uk/politics/2009/aug/18/cameron-brown-borrowing-government-debt). There are bound to be mass protests when such measures are implemented. Partly due to this forecast of mine, the left should be better prepared this time and end capitalism once and for all!